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Feb 19, 01:13
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Foreign enrollment at US colleges is falling:
International student enrollment at US universities declined -1.4% YoY this fall, the first decrease in 3 years.
~5,000 fewer international students enrolled nationwide.
The decline was led by graduate enrollment programs that plunged -6%, by ~10,000 students, the most in at least 5 years.
This follows an increase of +50% between 2020 and 2024.
Public 4-year institutions were hit hardest, recording a -9% drop in graduate international students.
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Feb 19, 00:08
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BREAKING: President Trump says the US trade deficit is down -78% due to his tariffs and “it will go positive” this year. https://t.co/mAPEcLdgXL
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Feb 19, 00:05
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BREAKING: Carvana stock, $CVNA, falls over -20% after reporting its lowest gross profit per unit in 8 quarters. https://t.co/cNTpNIREId
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Feb 18, 23:59
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Contra has partnered with us on this post.
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Feb 18, 23:49
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BREAKING: In a new release, Contra announces that AI agents can now officially purchase products and services from independent creators and freelancers.
AI-driven commerce officially arrived.
ben (@contraben)
Introducing Contra Payments.
The first payments platform that lets you sell to AI Agents.
RT + Comment “Contra” and I’ll send you 100 products AI agents are looking for. https://t.co/XgPgfq4pRW
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Feb 18, 23:49
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BREAKING: In a new release, Contra announces that AI agents can now officially purchase products and services from independent creators and freelancers.
AI-driven commerce officially arrived. https://t.co/HYodrTiZhb
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Feb 18, 13:57
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Institutional investors have rarely ever been this bearish on the US Dollar:
US Dollar net exposure by global fund managers is down to -35 points, the lowest in at least 14 years.
This is below the April 2025 bottom when President Trump surprised markets with "Liberation Day." https://t.co/SqYeiE3Qks
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Feb 18, 13:12
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RT @KobeissiLetter: BREAKING: Axios reports that there is evidence that US war with Iran is "imminent" and Israel is preparing for a scenar…
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Feb 18, 12:51
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BREAKING: Axios reports that there is evidence that US war with Iran is "imminent" and Israel is preparing for a scenario of "war within days," which is expected to include:
1. Weeks-long "full-fledged" war unlike the Venezuela operation, sources say
2. Joint US-Israeli
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Feb 18, 07:13
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BREAKING: The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, is expected to resign before the end of her 8-year term, per FT. https://t.co/LClwBLl12s
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Feb 18, 00:23
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Investors own more Magnificent 7 stocks than ever:
Hedge funds' total US net exposure to Magnificent 7 stocks is up to a record 22%.
This percentage has risen +10 points since April 2025.
Net exposure has nearly TRIPLED since the 2022 bear market low.
Furthermore, net https://t.co/pxwVN0EOsb
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Feb 17, 22:43
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AI disruption fears are dominating this earnings season:
Mentions of AI disruption during Q4 2025 earnings calls are up to a record 126.
This is nearly DOUBLE the previous quarter and more than 3 TIMES the level seen a year ago.
This comes despite earnings results https://t.co/DqVmgKLGnL
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Feb 17, 21:37
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BREAKING: Meta and Nvidia announce a multiyear partnership to expand AI infrastructure, including "large-scale deployment" of Nvidia CPUs and GPUs.
Nvidia says this partnership will deploy "millions of Nvidia GPUs" https://t.co/f39VqDJ3wj
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Feb 17, 21:21
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BREAKING: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announces it sold 77% of its Amazon, $AMZN, stake in Q4 2025, worth $1.7 billion.
Buffett also sold $2.7 billion of Apple last quarter. https://t.co/ptqeVo2Cdp
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Feb 17, 20:27
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BREAKING: President Trump announces that US-Japan trade deal has officially launched, which includes:
1. $550 billion investment by Japan in the US
2. Funding an LNG facility in Texas
3. Funding a gas power plant in Ohio
4. Funding a critical minerals plant in Georgia https://t.co/49v7cHrgWb
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Feb 17, 19:45
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The US college underemployment rate is at crisis levels:
The underemployment rate for recent college graduates is up to 42.5%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic peak.
This means nearly half of all recent graduates are working jobs that do not require a college degree.
The https://t.co/0wwIXYJl5I
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Feb 17, 18:56
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BREAKING: Global hedge funds purchased a record amount of Asian stocks in the 5 days ending Thursday.
This includes emerging and developed Asian stock markets.
Volumes were more than 2 TIMES the average seen last year.
Long buys drove the move, outnumbering short covering by a https://t.co/KXR9IpgQ1g
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Feb 17, 17:20
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This is unusual:
A larger investor has been buying December gold call option spreads of $15,000/$20,000 on the Comex exchange.
This means gold prices would have to TRIPLE from current levels by late 2025 for the trade to expire in the money and pay off.
The trade can also https://t.co/zM7m4FKVXV
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Feb 17, 16:15
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BREAKING: In a massive reversal, the S&P 500 erases all losses on the day and turns green.
The S&P 500 just added +$600 billion in 30 minutes. https://t.co/L9QCCTxRFn
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Feb 17, 15:44
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BREAKING: US stocks extend losses with the Nasdaq 100 now down -1.3% on the day. https://t.co/nGIuiqAjYx
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Feb 17, 15:08
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BREAKING: The Volatility Index, $VIX, extend gains to +8% on the day, now at a one-week high.
The Nasdaq 100 is now down -1% on the day. https://t.co/PzUt3OVTA2
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Feb 17, 14:11
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On Friday, we made the below post on our premium member feed.
We took shorts as gold spiked above $5,050 and called for a lower high.
These shorts are now nearly +$200 in the money.
Subscribe to access our premium analysis below:
https://t.co/SJRZ4FrfLE https://t.co/iBAGcsYJrf
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 17, 14:09
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BREAKING: Gold futures extend losses to drop back below $4,900/oz as US talks with Iran conclude. https://t.co/loTYOKMF8a
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Feb 17, 13:58
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BREAKING: Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, comments on US-Iran talks which just concluded:
Araghchi says "serious and constructive talks" led to a "general agreement" on a set of principles between the US and Iran.
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Feb 17, 13:17
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BREAKING: The odds of the Republican Party winning the US Senate in midterm elections fall to a new low of 60%.
Democrats are now also expected to control the House of Representatives, at an 83% chance, per Polymarket. https://t.co/yuDdybUE22
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Feb 17, 11:19
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BREAKING: Iran has shut down part of the Strait of Hormuz for military drills.
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Feb 17, 10:37
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BREAKING: Iran has begun firing missiles toward the Strait of Hormuz, per AP.
20% of global oil supply currently flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Feb 17, 00:22
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Investors are seeking more downside protection in Big Tech:
The total value of debt being insured against default in major tech companies is up to $10 billion.
Furthermore, net notional credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding are up nearly 400% from the $2.2 billion seen just 13 https://t.co/1dpwOSfJQv
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Feb 16, 22:52
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Trading volume in software stocks is exploding:
Turnover in the Tech-Software ETF, $IGV, jumped to a near-record $10.96 billion on Friday.
This is more than 5 TIMES the 200-day moving average and 3.5 TIMES the 50-day moving average.
This also follows a record $13.23 billion https://t.co/N5wChlZ3Yk
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Feb 16, 21:43
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China’s 2008 moment is happening:
New home prices in 70 Chinese cities fell -0.4% MoM in January.
Year-over-year, prices fell -3.1%, marking the steepest annual decline in 7 months.
Of the 70 cities surveyed, 62 posted price declines, up from 58 in December.
Home prices in https://t.co/xvfTFDThCX
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Feb 16, 20:21
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BREAKING: US national debt is set to surge +$2.4 trillion PER YEAR over the next 10 years, according to new CBO estimates.
As a result, US debt will likely reach a record $64 TRILLION in 2036, doubling from 2023 levels.
That would be TRIPLE the debt recorded in 2018, before the https://t.co/cYnyht45ec
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Feb 16, 19:06
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Japanese markets are making history:
The correlation between the Japanese Yen and the Topix stock index just flipped positive for the first time since 2005.
This means both the Yen and Japanese stocks are rising together, a rare historical signal in this market.
The shift https://t.co/Um3Uea1cK0
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Feb 16, 18:37
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BREAKING: SpaceX and xAI are competing in a secretive new US Pentagon contest to produce voice-controlled, autonomous drone swarming technology, per Bloomberg.
The winner of the challenge will be awarded $100 million.
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Feb 16, 17:51
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Market volatility is surging beneath the surface:
The spread between average single-stock 2-week volatility and the Nasdaq 100's volatility is up to 20.7 points, the highest since 2020.
This measures how much individual stocks are moving compared to the index, meaning the wider https://t.co/P0gSGDVZBy
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Feb 16, 16:42
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We need more power:
Global data center power demand is now expected to rise to a record 1,596 terawatt-hours by 2035.
That would mark a +255% increase from 2025 levels.
The US is set to remain the leader in consumption with a +144% surge in demand over this period, to 430 https://t.co/jBCUXxVr6h
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Feb 16, 15:33
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US white-collar hiring is extremely weak:
There are now just 1.6 job openings per 100 employees in the professional and business services sector, the lowest in at least 11 years.
This ratio has more than HALVED since 2021 and is even lower than the 2020 pandemic bottom. https://t.co/f7w9IaH6n0
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Feb 16, 14:31
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Consumer Staples stocks are thriving:
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector is up +17% in 5 weeks, its best performance since the 2020 pandemic recovery.
Only 4 other 5-week runs have been stronger since 1990, including February 1991, November 1998, April 2000, and April 2020. https://t.co/CG3fD8ugtR
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Feb 16, 13:29
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A tech stock short-squeeze is coming:
Short interest in the technology sector ETF, $XLK, is up to a 1.8%, the highest in at least 6 years.
This percentage has DOUBLED over the last few weeks.
Furthermore, on Wednesday, investors shorted over 58 million Microsoft, $MSFT, https://t.co/GrVzJWhIJY
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 16, 13:29
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A tech stock short-squeeze is coming:
Short interest in the technology sector ETF, $XLK, is up to a 1.8%, the highest in at least 6 years.
This percentage has DOUBLED over the last few weeks.
Furthermore, on Wednesday, investors shorted over 58 million Microsoft, $MSFT, https://t.co/jiP4OW2yB9
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Feb 16, 02:35
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BREAKING: Peter Steinberger, the Founder of OpenClaw, widely known as “ClawdBot,” is joining OpenAI.
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Feb 16, 01:32
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The US stock market is witnessing a historic run:
The MSCI USA Index's market cap relative to the US M2 money supply is up to a record 270%.
This ratio is up +120 percentage points since 2022.
This now surpasses the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak by ~40 percentage points, and the https://t.co/dHtE87ZHy9
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Feb 16, 00:21
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The recovery in US new vehicle sales remains sluggish:
New vehicle sales rose +2.4% in 2025, to 16.2 million units, the highest since 2019.
However, new vehicle sales are still below 2015-2019 and 1999-2006 levels.
They are also just slightly above 1986 levels, marking a https://t.co/sgwwzoBFN2
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Feb 15, 22:50
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The Kobeissi Letter for the week of February 16th has been published and may be viewed through the link below:
https://t.co/9c65UCffkW
The Chart of the Week for the week of February 16th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 15, 22:21
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The US Dollar continues to lead all global transactions:
The US Dollar's portion of international transactions via SWIFT is up to 50.5%, the highest since 2023.
This percentage is up +11.6 points over the last 4 years.
The Euro remains in 2nd place at 21.9%, followed by the https://t.co/HOl6v8j0pF
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Feb 15, 21:20
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China is ramping up trade with Latin America:
China now reflects 20.9% of Latin American and Caribbean exports, excluding Mexico, marking the 6th consecutive year with a weight above 20.0%.
This surpasses the US at 16.4% and the EU at 12.4%.
China’s contribution to Latin https://t.co/UjFrJie6Bs
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Feb 15, 19:52
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US job gains are now entirely driven by education and healthcare:
Education and health services have led nonfarm payroll gains for 18 consecutive months, the longest streak this century.
This exceeds the previous peaks of 16 months seen in 2008 and 2024.
Since 2023, these two https://t.co/VD3hukSbT2
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Feb 15, 18:31
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Treasury holdings at financial institutions are surging:
Primary dealer holdings of US government securities are up to a record $482 billion.
Primary dealers are large financial institutions, including banks, authorized to trade directly with the Fed, and are required to https://t.co/EqoNHboBsS
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Feb 15, 17:20
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BREAKING: US job numbers were revised down by -1,029,000 jobs in 2025, the largest annual revision in at least 20 years.
This follows downward revisions of -818,000 in 2024 and -306,000 in 2023.
In total, -2,153,000 jobs have been revised out of initially reported data over the https://t.co/CLDvMNLLse
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Feb 15, 16:12
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Metals trading activity in China is skyrocketing:
Combined trading volume in aluminium, copper, nickel, and tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped +86% MoM in January, to 78 million lots, the most in at least a year.
This is 5 TIMES the average monthly volume seen https://t.co/GQ8dXcwGKm
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Feb 15, 14:25
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Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated.
We just published our trades for premium members.
Since 2020, our calls are up over +516%.
Subscribe below to see how we are positioned into the week:
https://t.co/SJRZ4FrNBc
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The tweet highlights elevated geopolitical tensions...
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Feb 15, 14:23
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Key Events This Week:
1. Presidents' Day, US Markets Closed - Monday
2. December Durable Goods Orders data - Wednesday
3. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday
4. December PCE Inflation data - Friday
5. Total of 10 Fed speaker events this week
6. ~15% of S&P 500 companies report
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The tweet lists key economic data releases...
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Feb 14, 22:50
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China is stuck in its longest deflationary streak in decades:
China’s GDP deflator fell -0.7% in Q4 2025, marking the 11th consecutive quarterly decline, the longest streak in at least 30 years.
China has been in deflation for 3 consecutive years now, the longest stretch since https://t.co/djmyEZCsai
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China is experiencing...
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Feb 14, 20:23
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BREAKING: The US Treasury budget deficit fell -26% YoY in January, to $95 billion.
Over the first 4 months of FY2026, the deficit is down -17% YoY, to $697 billion, still posting the 3rd-worst start to a year in history.
Government revenue rose +12% YoY, to $1.8 trillion, https://t.co/Ejrtoa1F4A
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The US Treasury budget...
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Feb 14, 17:22
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BREAKING: China’s Treasury holdings as a % of all foreign holdings have declined to 7.3%, the lowest since 2001.
This percentage has declined -21.5 points since the June 2011 peak of 28.8%.
Over this period, China’s holdings have fallen -$627 billion, to $683 billion, the https://t.co/9ove8jtWnG
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China'...
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Feb 14, 16:18
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BREAKING: A record 16.4% of student loans transitioned into 30+ days delinquency in Q4 2025.
This exceeds the 2013 peak by 4.8 percentage points.
Furthermore, a record 16.2% of student loans transitioned into serious 90+ days delinquency.
This percentage has more than DOUBLED https://t.co/wceY8Hc3I0
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Record high student loan delinquency...
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Feb 14, 15:08
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The number of Americans working two full-time jobs has never been higher:
The number of multiple jobholders working primary and secondary full-time jobs is up to 476,000, the 2nd-highest on record.
This is only below the all-time high of 488,000, seen in December 2025.
The https://t.co/4MCJxZN8JQ
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The increasing number of Americans working...
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Feb 14, 13:57
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Big Tech bond issuance is flooding the market:
The technology sector represents 11.8% of all private sector debt issuance so far in 2026, the highest on record in data going back to 1999.
This TRIPLES the percentage seen in 2023 and is 4.6 percentage points above the previous https://t.co/KMbOBeSbK0
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Big Tech's bond issuance...
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Feb 13, 22:54
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BREAKING: President Trump says he will “shortly” issue an Executive Order on the “legal reasons” for national voter ID requirements. https://t.co/iSKRlB7E2c
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President Trump plans to issue an Executive...
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Feb 13, 21:39
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BREAKING: Amazon, $AMZN, officially closes down for its 9th straight day, posting its longest losing streak since 2006.
The stock has now erased $470 billion in market cap over the last 9 days.
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Feb 13, 20:36
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This is incredible:
At least 115 S&P 500 stocks have dropped -7% or more in a single day over the last 8 trading sessions.
And yet, the S&P 500 is down just -2% from its all-time high.
In the past, when at least 115 stocks saw a decline of -7% or more in an 8-day trading https://t.co/lY1oSKypkl
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Feb 13, 20:00
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BREAKING: Netherlands’ House of Representatives has approved a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains.
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Feb 13, 19:21
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Investors are flooding into international stock funds:
International equity ETFs attracted a record +$51.6 billion in inflows in January.
This marks the 5th consecutive monthly increase and the 17th straight month of inflows.
It also marks just the 2nd month on record where https://t.co/Lyx2G2f8Bk
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Feb 13, 18:10
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Risk appetite has arguably never been stronger:
The 10-day average of notional options volume on S&P 500 stocks is up ~$530 billion, the highest in at least 2 years.
This measures the total Dollar value of options contracts traded on individual S&P 500 stocks, reflecting the https://t.co/ZIB7FXOewT
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Feb 13, 17:12
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BREAKING: President Trump's Truth Social has filed for two crypto ETFs with the SEC.
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Feb 13, 16:56
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US equity market stress is rising beneath the surface:
The put-call skew in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, is up to 0.39, the highest since the April 2025 market sell-off.
The skew measures how much more investors are paying for downside protection using out-of-the-money puts versus https://t.co/TEDD9irr31
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Feb 13, 15:50
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What is happening in the South Korean equity market?
Korean equity funds attracted a record +$5.2 billion in inflows last week.
This follows +$3.5 billion the week before and +$1.7 billion 2 weeks prior.
As a result, the 4-week moving average of inflows jumped to a record https://t.co/Ss5F2HhafL
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Feb 13, 15:33
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BREAKING: The US Supreme Court announces that February 20th will be its next opinion day as markets await their ruling on the legality of President Trump's tariffs.
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Feb 13, 14:43
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BREAKING: The Dow Jones Industrial Average falls -1,500 points in 24 hours and officially drops below 50,000. https://t.co/jJIzz6Xqqo
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Feb 13, 14:30
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BREAKING: Alibaba stock, $BABA, falls as much as -5% as the US adds it to a list of companies that "aid the Chinese military." https://t.co/jKH1iz2sHw
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Feb 13, 13:32
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BREAKING: January CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.5%.
Core CPI inflation fell to 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%.
Core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021.
Odds of further interest rate cuts are back on the rise.
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Feb 13, 06:16
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BREAKING: President Trump is planning to scale back tariffs on steel and aluminum goods, per FT.
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Feb 13, 00:20
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The US debt spiral is about to intensify:
The CBO projects that US budget deficits will rise by an additional $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years.
This comes as government spending is set to be $1.3 trillion higher than previously expected.
At the same time, revenues are https://t.co/FIhynYrDjm
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Feb 12, 21:18
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BREAKING: Coinbase, $COIN, unexpectedly reports a large quarterly loss, posting quarterly EPS of -$2.49 compared to expectations of $0.96.
The company posted a net loss of -$667 million last quarter. https://t.co/yBt63FLWnd
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Feb 12, 20:31
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US copper stockpiles are exploding:
Copper inventories at Comex surged to a record 589,081 short tons last week.
Since June 2024, copper stockpiles have risen +6,400% and now exceed the previous record of 399,341 short tons set in 2002 by 48%.
Including off-exchange https://t.co/1vvqqODXRQ
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Feb 12, 19:26
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PRESIDENT TRUMP NOW:
“We have to make a deal with Iran.” https://t.co/5NXqFOphTU
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Feb 12, 18:28
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BREAKING: Coinbase, $COIN, says many users currently unable to buy, sell, or transfer crypto. https://t.co/HMZEoKlJAT
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Feb 12, 18:09
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BREAKING: Apple stock, $AAPL, falls -5% on the day, now on track for its biggest daily decline since April 2025. https://t.co/3OFeY3gUjB
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Feb 12, 17:25
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BREAKING: US equity markets extend their decline, with the Nasdaq 100 now down -1.5%. https://t.co/D8FjDY2ESG
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Feb 12, 16:29
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BREAKING: Silver prices fall nearly -10% in 30 minutes and officially drop back below $76/oz. https://t.co/wD67hszG4D
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Feb 12, 16:19
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BREAKING: Gold prices fall -3.5% in 15 minutes and officially drop back below $5,000/oz. https://t.co/LQSeDaaTJd
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Feb 12, 16:10
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BREAKING: The Trump Administration secretly smuggled 6,000 Starlink satellite terminals into Iran in January after the Iranian government cut off internet in the country, per WSJ. https://t.co/slWcunmRiZ
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Feb 12, 15:18
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BREAKING: US home sales fell -8.4% in January, the biggest monthly decline since February 2022.
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Feb 12, 14:38
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BREAKING: Russia is considering moving back to the US Dollar as part of a wide-ranging economic partnership with President Trump, per Bloomberg.
The partnership would include:
1. US and Russia working together on fossil fuels
2. Joint investments in natural gas
3. Offshore
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Feb 12, 13:49
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Multifamily mortgage delinquencies are surging:
Seriously delinquent rates in multifamily mortgages at Freddie Mac are up to 0.48%, the highest in at least 21 years.
The percentage has DOUBLED over the last 2 years.
At the same time, Fannie Mae multifamily serious https://t.co/mBE14CWacP
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Feb 12, 12:49
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AI is driving historic profitability in the market:
The S&P 500's net income margin excluding financials is up to a record 13%.
At the same time, the S&P 500's net margin excluding the Magnificent 7 and tech is down to 9%.
This marks a ~4 percentage point gap between tech and https://t.co/wlEiyrWy6M
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Feb 11, 23:58
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China's ownership of US assets is declining:
China’s combined holdings of Treasuries, stocks, and agency, corporate, and other bonds are down to $1.56 trillion, near the lowest in 14 years.
This includes Belgium-held Treasuries, widely believed to represent Chinese custodial https://t.co/iPA18NOE9r
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Feb 11, 22:44
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This is incredible:
0DTE options now reflect a record ~78% of all daily Nasdaq 100 options volume, up +23 points since 2024.
For the S&P 500, 0DTE represents ~65% of daily options volume, up from ~50% in January 2024.
Furthermore, 0DTE accounts for a near-record ~60% of https://t.co/E8mKFtFvvE
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Feb 11, 21:16
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Retail investors are buying US tech stocks at an unprecedented pace:
Retail purchases of the Software ETF, $IGV, are up to a record +$176 million over the last month.
This is more than DOUBLE the previous peak seen in late 2024 and 12 TIMES higher than at the beginning of 2026. https://t.co/GXgZXDh1eQ
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Feb 11, 20:04
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BREAKING: US household debt surged +$191 billion in Q4 2025, to record $18.8 trillion.
Total household debt has increased +$4.6 trillion since January 2020.
The surge was driven by mortgage debt, which jumped +$98 billion, to a record $13.2 trillion.
Credit card debt rose +$44 https://t.co/wIqBJHLaa0
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Feb 11, 19:02
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Serious delinquencies are skyrocketing in the US:
Credit card delinquencies rose +0.3 percentage points in Q4 2025, to 12.7%, the highest since Q1 2011.
This is only below the 2010-2011 period when delinquencies peaked at 13.7%, in the aftermath of 2008.
Since Q3 2022, serious https://t.co/1h22VTZKzQ
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Feb 11, 16:49
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BREAKING: 9 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the US last week.
This brings the 3-week average to 6, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic.
This means at least 18 companies with liabilities at or above $50 million have gone bankrupt over the last 3 weeks.
In the past, https://t.co/8XJB4BExGl
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Feb 11, 15:37
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BREAKING: Average daily US equity turnover jumped +50% YoY in January, to a record $1.03 trillion.
Over 19 billion shares were traded on average each day, the 2nd-highest on record.
Last month, 14 out of 20 trading sessions exceeded 18 billion shares in trading volume.
By https://t.co/PCwN8lsR41
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Feb 11, 14:25
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BREAKING: The odds of another US government shutdown in 3 days surge to a new high of 75%, per Polymarket.
Government shutdowns are becoming a bi-weekly event. https://t.co/a3IlCwBzeJ
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Feb 11, 13:31
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BREAKING: The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, crushing expectations of 55,000.
The unemployment rate FELL to 4.3%, below expectations of 4.4%.
This was a much stronger than expected jobs report, all around the board.
The Fed pause will continue.
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Feb 11, 12:52
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The most ironic part about AI is that it’s replacing the jobs of the very people who created it and said it would replace everyone else’s. https://t.co/HhuS9mkRIG
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Feb 11, 11:54
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BREAKING: President Trump is privately considering exiting USMCA, the North American trade pact, per Bloomberg.
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Feb 11, 10:55
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BREAKING: Silver prices surge over +6%, now back above $85/oz. https://t.co/Ft70ztSVG1
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Feb 11, 06:19
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BREAKING: Bitcoin drops back below $67,000 as selling pressure in crypto returns. https://t.co/bLS3hrCGBv
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Feb 11, 01:10
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Levered tech ETFs are out of control:
There are now a record 108 long and 31 short tech-related leveraged ETFs, 139 in total.
This is 3 TIMES more than the 2nd largest sector, financials, with 47 total funds.
By comparison, Consumer Discretionary has 44 ETFs, while https://t.co/xJZdQq2QMq
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Feb 11, 00:04
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Gold inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange vaults are skyrocketing:
Deliverable gold in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, measured by warehouse warrants, is up to a record 104 tonnes.
Warehouse warrants represent physical gold stored in approved exchange vaults that can be https://t.co/qUi5LigMy9
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Feb 10, 21:26
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BREAKING: Robinhood stock, $HOOD, falls nearly -10% after posting lower than expected Q4 2025 revenue. https://t.co/VP0rOx8ytF
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Feb 10, 20:17
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China's consumer confidence has completely collapsed:
China's consumer confidence index is down to ~90 points, near the lowest level on record.
The index plunged ~40 points between 2021 and 2022 and has remained at extremely pessimistic levels over the last 4 years.
Before https://t.co/017IO7xLbp
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Feb 10, 18:51
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Americans are extremely bullish on the stock market:
50% of Americans now expect the stock market to rise over the next 6 months, the 2nd-highest reading since 2020, according to a January Gallup poll.
This is above the long-term average of ~45% seen from 2006 to 2019.
By https://t.co/K6JBNIuqCW
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Feb 10, 16:58
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BREAKING: The inflation-adjusted average starting salary for college graduates is down -8% YoY, to ~$54,500, the lowest in at least 6 years.
This marks the 4th consecutive annual decline.
Salaries have plummeted -24% in real terms since the ~$71,000 peak seen in 2021.
This https://t.co/DvuOybxliK
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Feb 10, 15:43
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BREAKING: The Chinese Yuan has strengthened to 6.91 against the US Dollar, the strongest since May 2023.
The Yuan is now on track for its 7th consecutive monthly gain, the longest streak since 2020-2021, up+5% since 2025.
It has also been the 3rd-best-performing currency in https://t.co/ddA221IWEY
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Feb 10, 14:52
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What is happening with US manufacturing employment?
The manufacturing sector shed -8,000 jobs in January, according to the ADP private employment report.
This marks the 32nd consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since data began in 2010.
In 2024 and 2025, https://t.co/i04rDQAWED
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Feb 10, 13:26
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The short US bond trade is very crowded:
Short interest in the popular Treasury bond-tracking ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 150.5 million shares.
This is 10 TIMES above levels seen in March 2023, which stood at ~15 million shares.
Short interest has TRIPLED since 2024 despite https://t.co/wmLySuY8IY
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Feb 10, 08:51
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This clip is circulating everywhere.
No, President Trump did not say he “made a mistake” on his nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair.
This clip has been taken out of context.
He is referring to his appointment of Fed Chair Powell in 2017, because his "Treasury Secretary https://t.co/bH0CPoPx9b
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Feb 10, 04:54
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Big Tech CapEx is exploding:
The combined CapEx of Amazon, $AMZN, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, and Microsoft, $MSFT, is expected to jump +70% YoY, to a record $610 billion in 2026.
This is nearly 3 TIMES the $217 billion spent in 2024 and more than 4 TIMES 2023 levels. https://t.co/rZ3OCg3Yrx
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Feb 10, 01:05
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Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are collapsing:
Shanghai's Silver available for delivery is down to just 350 tonnes, the lowest since 2015.
This marks a -88% decline from the ~3,000 tonne peak seen in January 2021.
This tightness has been exacerbated by https://t.co/MIFWjVFMqH
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Feb 09, 21:55
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Big Tech is sacrificing buybacks for AI CapEx:
Combined buybacks by Amazon, $AMZN, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Microsoft, $MSFT, Meta, $META, and Oracle, $ORCL, plunged to $12.6 billion in Q4 2025, the lowest since Q1 2018.
Share repurchases have declined -74% since the ~$48.0 billion https://t.co/297dEy2Llw
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Feb 09, 20:39
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BREAKING: Tech funds recorded +$6.0 billion in inflows last week, the largest intake in 8 weeks.
This brings the 4-week moving average up to +$3.5 billion, the 3rd-highest on record.
Inflows have now been positive for 7 consecutive months.
Overall, +$34.6 billion flowed into https://t.co/r0uk1O2eDr
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Feb 09, 19:15
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Market breadth is surging:
65.6% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index over the last 3 months, the highest reading since late 2024.
This is the 5th-strongest market participation in 23 years.
By comparison, the long-term average is ~50% while the 20-year low was 19%. https://t.co/gdgeVnuFgQ
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Feb 09, 18:03
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Used car prices are surging again:
Wholesale used vehicle prices rose +2.4% MoM and +2.4% YoY in January, to the highest since September 2023.
This is well above the long-term average monthly decline of -0.2%.
Non-EVs led the increase at +2.2% YoY, followed by luxury at +1.6% https://t.co/FJ0Z3EuJs6
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Feb 09, 16:49
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On Friday, we posted the below alert for our premium members.
We called the downturn a mere correction and called for 6900+, buying the dip.
Today, these longs are up +170 points.
Subscribe to access our premium analysis below:
https://t.co/SJRZ4FrfLE https://t.co/DVp7V9a5D3
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Feb 09, 16:43
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BREAKING: US stocks extend gains to a new high of the day, with the Nasdaq 100 now up +1%.
The S&P 500 is now 30 points away from a record high. https://t.co/UoBfbgDQtx
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Feb 09, 15:51
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The Stablecoin market is ripe for disruption:
In just 9 months in 2025, Tether ALONE reported $10 BILLION in profit from $USDT.
How is this possible?
Tether reported $137 BILLION in US Treasury holdings, making the company the 17th largest holder of US debt.
Tether takes the https://t.co/FdheYmLReg
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Feb 09, 14:40
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BREAKING: Total consumer credit surged +$24 billion in December, to a record $5.11 trillion.
This marks the biggest monthly increase of 2025 and the largest since 2023.
Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, jumped +$13.8 billion, to $1.33 trillion, the highest since https://t.co/cluofFwg31
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Feb 09, 13:28
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Retail investors are piling into gold and silver funds:
The largest physical-backed gold ETF, $GLD, has attracted +$16 billion in inflows from individual investors over the last year.
The largest physical silver-backed ETF, $SLV, has seen +$4 billion in retail inflows.
Over https://t.co/7X7e42dgbn
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Feb 09, 12:13
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BREAKING: Hims stock, $HIMS, extends losses to -17% on the day as Novo Nordisk says it is suing the company for making knock-offs of its obesity medicines. https://t.co/3rXwbGCSwh
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Feb 09, 07:18
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BREAKING: Elon Musk says SpaceX is attempting to build a self-growing city on the moon within the next 10 years.
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Feb 09, 06:38
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BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings."
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Feb 09, 00:12
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BREAKING: Gold officially reclaims $5,000/oz and silver rises back into $80/oz.
Another wild week is ahead of us. https://t.co/O2yb31wqdN
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Feb 08, 23:42
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BREAKING: President Trump reiterates his 100,000 target for the Dow Jones. https://t.co/TEULoHKvqV
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Feb 08, 23:15
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BREAKING: US stock market futures open higher with S&P 500 futures now up +150 points since Friday’s low.
Bitcoin is back above $72,000. https://t.co/mE0KUDKDna
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Feb 08, 22:50
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The Kobeissi Letter for the week of February 9th has been published and may be viewed through the link below:
https://t.co/9c65UCfNau
The Chart of the Week for the week of February 9th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:
https://t.co/lFT7Stj4p1
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Feb 08, 16:46
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How bad has the US debt crisis become?
Interest payments on US public debt to overseas holders surged to a record $292 billion in Q3 2025.
This amount has more than DOUBLED since 2020.
The US Treasury now pays 6 TIMES more to international holders of US debt than before the https://t.co/IGl117zqOO
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Feb 08, 14:56
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We now have:
1. US President with a 100,000 price target on the Dow
2. New Fed Chair who is "required" to cut interest rates
3. $2,000 stimulus checks back in discussion
4. US government buying $200 billion in mortgage bonds
5. New $1.2 trillion funding bill signed into
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Feb 08, 13:30
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Earnings season is also in full swing and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated.
We just published our trades for premium members.
Since 2020, our calls are up over +516%.
Subscribe below to see how we are positioned into the week:
https://t.co/SJRZ4FrfLE
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Feb 08, 13:29
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Key Events This Week:
1. December Retail Sales data - Monday
2. January Jobs Report - Wednesday
3. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday
4. January Existing Home Sales data - Thursday
5. January CPI Inflation data - Friday
6. 5 Fed speaker events this week
More government
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Feb 08, 00:03
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US job openings are now at recession levels:
US job openings dropped -386,000 in December, to 6.5 million, the lowest since September 2020.
Over the last 2 months, job openings have declined -907,000, the biggest 2-month drop since March 2023.
The number of available vacancies https://t.co/iw1IUlVljS
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Feb 07, 22:43
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European stocks are experiencing an incredible run:
The Stoxx 600 index has gained for 7 consecutive months, the longest streak since 2013.
This is also the 2nd-best run this century and one of the strongest in 40 years.
During the streak, the index has rallied +14.4%.
The https://t.co/helQFP4PLh
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Feb 07, 21:41
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BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices jumped +103 basis points in January, to a record 12.3%.
This surpasses the post-2008 Financial Crisis peak by 1.6 percentage points.
The CMBS delinquency rate has soared +600% over the https://t.co/VUZohI5gYK
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Feb 07, 20:12
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Investors are still piling into gold funds at a record pace:
Gold holdings in the largest physical gold-backed ETF, $GLD, are up to 34.9 million troy ounces, the highest since May 2022.
Since June 2024, gold holdings in the fund have increased +8 million troy ounces, or +30%. https://t.co/AFnjnJbJ8T
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Feb 07, 18:59
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Employment at small US businesses is contracting at an alarming pace:
Small US firms employing 20-49 people shed -30,000 jobs in January, the 5th consecutive monthly decline.
These firms have seen employment contract in 14 out of the last 17 months.
Over this period, payrolls https://t.co/aeb3bosqis
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Feb 07, 17:57
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Investors have rarely been this bullish this century:
Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator is up to 9.4 points, the highest since February 2018.
This measures equity and bond flows, hedge fund and fund manager positioning, and market breadth.
The gauge is now at its https://t.co/cdGs7c7lJr
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Feb 07, 16:41
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Investors are rushing into US software stocks:
The Tech-Software ETF, $IGV, posted a combined +$1.5 billion 2-day inflow on Wednesday and Thursday, the 2nd-highest on record.
This is second only to the +$1.7 billion seen in 2024.
As a result, $IGV trading volume spiked to a https://t.co/2WbcYhMn8I
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Feb 07, 15:40
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January was likely another tough month for the US job market:
US nonfarm employment fell -13,300 last month, marking the 2nd monthly decline over the last 4 months, according to Revelio.
The firm aggregates data from company career pages, such as LinkedIn and Indeed, and https://t.co/JvtM4z7vXy
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Feb 07, 14:39
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BREAKING: Crypto funds recorded -$1.5 billion in net outflows in the week ending Wednesday, the most since November.
This marks the 2nd consecutive weekly withdrawal and the 5th over the last 7 weeks.
As a result, the 4-week moving average of outflows fell to -$700 million, the https://t.co/I9U2y16SJt
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Feb 07, 13:35
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BREAKING: Perplexity announces an advanced version of Deep Research, which beats both OpenAI and Anthropic in benchmarking tests.
The AI race just keeps on accelerating. https://t.co/bYX6ahkPe8
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Feb 07, 01:53
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BREAKING: President Trump predicts the Dow Jones will hit 100,000 by the end of his term. https://t.co/LSYol5p82A
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No analysis
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Feb 07, 00:55
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BREAKING: France’s President Macron says the country has invested more than €30 million in AI through “France 2030.”
Nvidia alone makes $360 million in revenue per day. https://t.co/i0PjK6VNq1
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No analysis
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Feb 06, 22:58
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 and crypto added a combined $1.5 TRILLION worth of market cap today. https://t.co/E0KG8MeBg9 https://t.co/8esjPqsxwl
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No analysis
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